Topic · Risk and intelligence
Risk and intelligence: from the risk matrix to the risk profile
Risk matrices, bow-ties and barriers, indicators, weak signals and the computed risk profile.
What is aviation safety intelligence?
Aviation safety intelligence connects safety, quality and compliance records on one operational graph, so risk is computed from the records instead of declared in a spreadsheet. This topic covers its parts: the risk matrix, bow-ties and barriers, indicators, weak signals and the risk profile.
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Risk and intelligence
16 articles in Risk and intelligence, newest first
- Real SPC vs Coloured Trend Bars: Reading the Risk WeatherA coloured arrow is not a signal. Statistical process control (Western Electric rules, ICAO Doc 9859) tells you when a safety indicator has really shifted.
- The Aviation Risk Model, In the Box: 85 Bow-ties, 682 Barriers, 516 IndicatorsMost platforms ship an empty canvas. eAviora ships the model: 85 bow-tie models, 682 named barriers, 183 scenarios and a 516-indicator SPI library on day one.
- The Computed Safety Risk Profile: A Seven-Component Answer to “Are We Getting Safer?”Seven components (base risk, trend, barrier health, active signals, action exposure, data confidence, surveillance coverage) fuse into one banded score.
- What Is Aviation Safety Intelligence? A Working Definition for Safety LeadersAviation safety intelligence connects, interprets and anticipates across safety data. A working definition, its core properties, and how it differs from SMS.
- From Safety Management to Safety Intelligence: How the Discipline Is ChangingSafety management records and controls. Safety intelligence connects and anticipates. The shift reshaping how airlines run safety, and why it is happening now.
- Safety Performance Indicators for Airlines: How to Build a Practical SPI LibraryA practical SPI library for airlines: leading vs lagging indicators, baseline metrics, thresholds, targets, ownership and how to keep the dashboard honest.
- Why Compliance Alone Cannot Prevent IncidentsA compliant safety system can still be a blind one. Why conformance proves the rules were followed, not that the operation is safe, and what closes the gap.
- Why Mature SMS Programs Still Miss Emerging RiskEven a well-run SMS has structural blind spots: lagging bias, module silos, and a reactive loop. Why maturity is not foresight, and where the gaps sit.
- Weak Signals in Aviation Safety: Seeing Risk Before It Becomes an OccurrenceWeak signals are the faint, scattered indicators that precede most events: what they are, why single modules miss them, how to read them across the operation.
- Operational Drift: The Risk Nobody ReportsOperations drift slowly toward the edge of safe, one reasonable shortcut at a time. Why drift generates no occurrence report, and how to make it visible.
- How Airlines Can Connect Occurrence Reporting, CAPA, SPI and Safety Risk ProfilesOccurrence reports alone do not run a safety system. How airlines connect occurrence, CAPA, SPI and SRP into one loop the accountable manager can read.
- Leading Indicators vs Lagging Indicators in Aviation SafetyLagging indicators count what happened; leading indicators watch what predicts it. The distinction, the balance, and the mistakes that weaken an SPI set.
- Risk-Based Oversight in Aviation: What Comes Next?Oversight is moving from checklist audits to risk- and performance-based supervision. What the shift means for authorities and operators, and where it leads.
- The Aviation Safety Intelligence Maturity Model: Five Levels from Reactive to AnticipatoryA five-level model from reactive reporting to anticipatory safety intelligence: where your organisation sits today, and what the next level requires.
- How Airlines Detect Emerging Risk Before Incidents OccurThe practices airlines use to surface emerging risk early: cross-module signals, precursor tracking, drift checks and a safety operating rhythm leaders can run.
- The bowtie without the spreadsheetModern barrier analysis for aviation: the five elements, why spreadsheets fail at it, and how to keep the bowtie a living artifact tied to operational data.
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